Misleading! The ARREST Agenda does not state $5.88B debt will be paid off in 2029

 

Claim: “The Unity Party Government has confirmed in their Arrest Agenda for Inclusive Development (AAID) that they will leave power in 2029 with a 5.88 billion USD debt.”
 

 

Source: Acarous Moses Gray, former Representative, Montserrado District #8 and an executive of the major opposition political party, CDC.

Verdict: misleading, The Government did not  confirm lifting US$5.88 billion debt in 2029

Full Text: Gray, former representative of Montserrado County District #8,  posted on his Facebook page that the ruling Unity Party Government has confirmed in its Arrest Agenda for Inclusive Development (AAID) that they will leave power in 2029 with a US$ 5.88 billion debt sorted.

The Gray post generated 222 reactions, 339 comments, and 7 shares as of the publication date.

The Unity Party came back to power after defeating the immediate past administration of the Coalition for Democratic Change in the 2023 run-off election. 

President Boakai, upon taking over as head of state, introduced the ARREST Agenda, which was recently launched in Grand Bassa County.

The agenda is said to be Liberia’s fourth post-conflict National Development Plan, designed to advance the country toward achieving the Liberia 2030 Vision. It builds on the successes and lessons of previous initiatives, such as the Poverty Reduction Strategy, the Agenda for Transformation, and the Pro-Poor Agenda for Prosperity and Development.

The AAID and CDAs were developed through extensive consultations with stakeholders from all sectors of society, including farmers, entrepreneurs, youth, individuals with disabilities, and members of the diaspora. These frameworks prioritize inclusivity, sustainability, governance, and equality, addressing key national challenges such as unemployment, poor infrastructure, and limited access to education and healthcare.

Key priorities of the ARREST Agenda include:
• Modernizing Infrastructure: Improving roads, energy, and technology access.
• Fostering Good Governance: Ensuring Transparency, Accountability, and Justice.
• Revitalizing the Economy: Leveraging natural resources, trade, and investment opportunities.
• Empowering Citizens: Expanding education, healthcare, and opportunities for women and youth.

Verification: To verify this claim, we contacted ex-Representative Gray via WhatsApp text messages to share his source (s) of information with us. But all efforts applied were futile. He did not reply to our messages and phone calls.

We further checked the PDF copy of the AAID book layout to ascertain whether the government confirmed said statement in their development document.

We took a keen interest in pillar 7, which talks about the financial plan of the AAID. In the financial plan, the total estimated cost of implementing the AAID programs under each pillar over the period 2025-2029 is US$8.38 billion. The projected disaggregated cost of each one of the AAID pillars is as follows:

According to the document, the Government of Liberia will fund (US$2.5 billion, or 30%), while the remaining 70% will potentially be funded by various development stakeholders, including the private sector (US$2.7 billion, representing 35%), grants as Official Development Assistance (ODA) and Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) activities (US$1.9 billion, or 25%), and diaspora remittances (US$0.7 billion, constituting 10%).

The document under the Financial Plan session 7.3 states: “The Government will apply prudent measures to secure funds through responsible borrowing to implement the AAID while safeguarding long-term fiscal stability. To this end, the following debt management-related measures will be adopted: Concessional borrowing: Prioritization of loans from multilateral institutions (e.g., World Bank, IMF, African Development Bank) and bilateral partners offering concessional terms with low interest rates, longer grace periods, and extended repayment periods.”

It further states: “On the other hand, the operational approach of aligning new borrowing with AAID development drivers and filters to maximize the development impact will be adopted. Debt restructuring: The country intends to renegotiate existing debt to extend maturity periods or reduce interest rates, easing the fiscal burden, while engaging in debt swaps (e.g., debt-for-climate or debt-for-development swaps) where feasible. Adherence to debt sustainability frameworks: Regular debt sustainability analyses will be conducted to avoid over-indebtedness, as well as borrowing for projects with clear economic or social returns.”

Conclusion: Based upon our search and findings, we conclude that the statement made by former Rep. Acarous Moses Gray that the Unity Party Government has confirmed in their Arrest Agenda for Inclusive Development (AAID) that they will leave power in 2029 with a US$ 5.88 billion debt is misleading. 

Written by: G. Watson Richards, Montserrado Fellow